Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 0.776085 0.892282 1.016312 1.158152 1.315454 1.484142 1.678295
2025-02-23 0.573867 0.722645 0.892776 1.100184 1.344591 1.621798 1.958249
2025-03-02 0.416762 0.576023 0.771178 1.024359 1.340285 1.717517 2.197649
2025-03-09 0.321639 0.487722 0.705449 1.005037 1.399086 1.891804 2.545594
2025-03-16 0.244093 0.407939 0.638173 0.974128 1.439184 2.046666 2.884522
2025-03-23 0.199161 0.365204 0.614165 0.997332 1.552279 2.305125 3.378166
2025-03-30 0.148250 0.302281 0.550629 0.955642 1.571029 2.439298 3.719057
2025-04-06 0.113878 0.258185 0.507955 0.938264 1.621697 2.620872 4.138222
2025-04-13 0.085791 0.217770 0.463677 0.911442 1.654300 2.778294 4.534387
2025-04-20 0.069009 0.194576 0.444717 0.922980 1.746841 3.030203 5.083467
2025-04-27 0.053961 0.170361 0.419103 0.919009 1.813168 3.246507 5.593282
2025-05-04 0.043480 0.153202 0.403781 0.931067 1.906800 3.511279 6.192145
2025-05-11 0.033901 0.135316 0.384573 0.935676 1.992715 3.777574 6.822770
2025-05-18 0.024603 0.113841 0.352460 0.909946 2.021892 3.953683 7.323473
2025-05-25 0.016669 0.091848 0.313103 0.862371 2.005014 4.050835 7.703213
2025-06-01 0.012420 0.079968 0.295795 0.859301 2.072353 4.297216 8.342759
2025-06-08 0.008824 0.067856 0.274233 0.842747 2.110973 4.495349 8.912574
2025-06-15 0.007108 0.062967 0.272195 0.872086 2.245722 4.874994 9.811561
2025-06-22 0.004725 0.051946 0.247576 0.841321 2.251381 5.017942 10.308244
2025-06-29 0.003287 0.044547 0.232071 0.830831 2.298849 5.241197 10.956337
2025-07-06 0.002161 0.037330 0.214257 0.810528 2.321921 5.418556 11.530339
2025-07-13 0.001602 0.033783 0.209009 0.824243 2.422894 5.751860 12.399542
2025-07-20 0.001102 0.029574 0.199300 0.823149 2.489082 6.020011 13.160901